Seasonal hydrological and nutrient loading forecasts for watersheds over the Southeastern United States

We show useful seasonal deterministic and probabilistic prediction skill of streamflow and nutrient loading over watersheds in the Southeastern United States (SEUS) for the winter and spring seasons. The study accounts for forecast uncertainties stemming from the meteorological forcing and hydrological model uncertainty. Multi-model estimation from three hydrological models, each forced with an ensemble of forcing derived by matching observed analogues of forecasted quartile rainfall anomalies from a seasonal climate forecast is used. The attained useful hydrological prediction skill is despite the climate model overestimating rainfall by over 23% over these SEUS watersheds in December–May period. The prediction skill in the month of April and May is deteriorated as compared to the period from December–March (zero lead forecast). A nutrient streamflow rating curve is developed using a log linear tool for this purpose. The skill in the prediction of seasonal nutrient loading is identical to the skill of seasonal streamflow forecast.     

Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology using fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making methods: Case study from the aerospace industry

Given the accelerating pace of technological advances and environmental changes, technology-based companies are required to predict and understand future events in their environments. However, there is a wide range of forecasting methods creating confusion on which method to use. This paper demonstrates the selection of an appropriate technique for technology forecasting in the Iran Aviation Industries Organization (IAIO). To this end, a review of the literature was first reviewed to extract the proper criteria for selecting a forecasting method. Next, the SWARA and fuzzy MUTLIMOORA methods were used to evaluate and prioritize a total of twelve forecasting methods proposed for the case study. The results suggested that the Delphi method for technology forecasting in the IAIO. Scenario writing and the relevance tree are the next proper alternatives that can be used.     

Traffic video‐based intelligent traffic control system for smart cities using modified ant colony optimizer

Road traffic congestion is a serious problem in today's world and it happens because of urbanization and population growth. The traffic reduces the transport efficiency in the city, increases the waiting time and travel time, and also increases the usage of fuel and air pollution. To overcome these issues this papers propose an intelligent traffic control system using the Internet of Vehicles (IoV). The vehicles or nodes present in the IoV can communicate between themselves. This technique helps in determining the traffic intensity and the best route to reach the destination. The area of study used in this paper is Vellore city in Tamilnadu, India. The city map is separated into many segments of equal size and Ant Colony Algorithm (AOC) is applied to the separated maps to find the optimal route to reach the destination. Further, Support Vector Machine (SVM) is used to calculate the traffic density and to model the heavy traffic. The proposed algorithm performs better in finding the optimal route when compared to that of the existing path selection algorithms. From the results, it is evident that the proposed IoV‐based route selection method provides better performance.     

交通事故的自动判案研究

该文针对法律领域民事案件中的“交通事故”类案件进行研究,期望在该“交通事故”数据集上实现自动判案。从“中国裁判文书网”采集14 000条数据文本,并对数据进行人工标注。基于对数据集的分析,分别对数据进行粗粒度和细粒度分类,粗粒度为4类,细粒度为8类。该文使用了三种模型: 基于SVM的模型、基于BI-GRU的模型和基于Attention+BI-GRU的模型。实验结果表明: 在该数据集上,对数据进行粗粒度分类时,基于Attention+BI-GRU的模型F1值为80.26%,基于SVM的模型为77.24%,基于BI-GRU的模型为72.65%。在细粒度分类时,基于BI-GRU的模型F1值为48.59%,基于SVM的模型为38.29%,基于Attention+BI-GRU的模型为40.87%。     

空间语义增强下的城市交通事故数据可视分析

目的 海量城市交通事故数据可能蕴含有交通事故的空间模式，挖掘出交通事故的空间模式有助于开展交通事故的防治工作。目前交通管理部门虽然记录了交通事故发生地的空间位置信息，但没有对事故发生地进行空间语义描述，从而影响对交通事故空间模式的深入分析。因此，提出一种交通事故数据空间语义增强方法，并设计了一套可视分析系统。方法 基于城市兴趣点来增强交通事故数据的空间语义。以事故发生点为中心获取周围城市兴趣点，使用特征向量刻画兴趣点的数量、类别及其与事故发生点的距离，并称此向量为空间语义特征向量。将空间语义特征向量和相应的交通事故关联，以达到增强其空间语义的目的。然后，基于空间语义特征向量，使用自组织映射聚类算法对交通事故进行聚类分析，根据其空间语义特征将交通事故分为若干类别。最后，通过使用地图视图展示事故点数据、聚类视图和平行坐标视图展示聚类分析的结果及其空间语义特征的可视化方法，对交通事故的空间模式进行分析。结果 针对空间语义增强的交通事故数据以及相关分析任务，有效地使用上述数据分析方法与可视化技术，设计并实现了一套多视图关联的可视分析系统，提供了便捷的交互方式辅助用户分析。通过研发人员和交通警察共同对安徽省合肥市2018年的交通事故数据进行分析，将交通事故发生地划分9类并指出每类地点的空间语义特点，进一步分析出了事故高发区域的空间语义特性。结论 本文提出的交通事故数据空间语义增强方法和可视分析方法可以帮助用户揭示交通事故的空间语义模式，有助于深入分析和认识交通事故的成因，能为交通事故防治相关的城市建设工作提供建议。     

基于空间合作关系的基站流量预测模型

针对传统的自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型和长短时记忆（LSTM）单元在基站流量预测中没有利用基站（BS）间合作关系的问题，提出一种利用由用户群体在不同基站下访问产生的基站合作关系的流量预测（TPBC）算法。首先，通过基站之间的合作关系构建基站合作网络，并对此合作网络进行社区划分得到基站社区；然后，通过格兰杰因果关系检验方法寻找与目标基站同一社区且关系最紧密的若干基站，作为目标基站的合作基站；最后，使用LSTM和词嵌入层（Embedding）搭建混合神经网络，并根据目标基站和合作基站的流量信息进行流量预测。实验结果表明，TPBC在基站流量预测上的均方根误差（RMSE）相比ARIMA和LSTM分别减小了29.19%和27.47%。TPBC能有效提高基站流量预测准确率，在流量卸载和绿色节能等领域具有重要意义。     

基于SARIMA-GRNN-SVM的短期商业电力负荷组合预测方法

针对短期商业电力负荷预测准确性与周期难以满足现有电力现货市场的问题,提出了一种基于SARIMAGRNN-SVM(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized regression neural network-support vector machine)的商业电力负荷组合预测模型。首先,对商业电力负荷变化的周期规律与随机因素的复杂影响进行了分析;然后,结合以上分析,选用SARIMA和GRNN为单一预测模型对商业电力负荷进行预测,并利用SVM进行组合,实现日前商业电力负荷预测;最后,通过某商业综合体的电力负荷数据进行验证。所提组合预测模型较单一预测模型拥有更优的预测精度与鲁棒性,可以为短期商业电力负荷预测提供借鉴。     

小尺度交通信号灯的检测与状态识别

交通信号灯识别包括检测和状态识别，在智能交通系统中发挥重要作用。基于YOLOv3算法提出了一种交通信号灯检测与状态识别模型。针对交通信号灯相较于交通场景中其他目标具有尺度小的特性进行了算法的设计：降低骨干网络的下采样倍率以增加小尺度目标的特征描述能力；通过增大特征图的尺度来改进多尺度特征融合；引入广义交并比作为检测任务的损失函数来改进目标边界框的回归效果。同时，根据交通信号灯本身的特性，使用颜色和形状约束的方法对信号灯进行状态识别和类别验证。最后在公开的Bosch交通信号灯数据集上和实际的城区道路进行了实验验证。实验结果表明，所提出的算法能够提升交通信号灯识别的精度和召回率，识别准确率可以达到90%左右。     

State-space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

ARIMA is seldom used in supply chains in practice. There are several reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size of available data, which restricts the usage of the model. Keeping in mind this restriction, we discuss in this paper a state-space ARIMA model with a single source of error and show how it can be efficiently used in the supply-chain context, especially in cases when only two seasonal cycles of data are available. We propose a new order selection algorithm for the model and compare its performance with the conventional ARIMA on real data. We show that the proposed model performs well in terms of both accuracy and computational time in comparison with other ARIMA implementations, which makes it efficient in the supply-chain context.     

A study on the monitoring model development for quality measurement of internet traffic

The recent trend of integration among new network services such as the long-term evolution (LTE) based on internet protocol (IP) needs reputable analyses and prediction information on the internet traffic. The IP along with increased internet traffics due to expanding new service platforms such as smartphones will reflect policies such as network QoS according to new services. The establishment of monitoring methods and analysis plans is thus required for the development of internet traffics that will analyze their status and predict their future. The paper with the speed of Internet traffic model is developed for monitoring the state of the experiment and verified. The problem is that the proposed service Internet service provider (ISP) to resolve the conflict between the occurrences can be considerably Internet traffic and that the state of data may be helpful in understanding. The paper advancement policy to reflect the network traffic volume of Internet services and users irradiation with increased traffic due to the development and management of the analysis was carried out experimental measurements.